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Tuesday, January 17, 2012

AWARDS SEASON 2012
Suspense Or Anti-Climax? Predicting Next Week's
Academy Award Nominees

Mo'Nique and Academy president Tom Sherak during last year's Oscar nominations announcement.  AMPAS  
  
by Omar P.L. Moore/PopcornReel.com        Follow popcornreel on Twitter FOLLOW                                           
Tuesday, January 17, 2012
Could next Tuesday morning be the most suspenseful part of the entire Academy Awards process and remainder of the year's film awards season?

No one, not even those two bespectacled white guys at PriceWaterhouse Coopers, knows who the Oscar nominees will be -- at least at this point.  With exactly a week to go before last year's best actress nominee Jennifer Lawrence and Academy president Tom Sherak are up early on the west coast to announce a partial list of the nominees for live television, it is still anyone's guess in some categories as to who will be nominated.

The supporting actor category may be the most unpredictable of all.  Will Nick Nolte,  honored or nominated by only one or two film critics' groups and awards shows for his work in "Warrior", make the final cut?  How about someone from the cast of "Midnight In Paris"?  Corey Stoll?  Will any actor from "Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy" not named Gary Oldman be nominated? 

Wait a second.  Will Gary Oldman be nominated at all?  How about Michael Shannon? 

Will Michael Fassbender be left off to make way for someone else in the best actor category?  Owen Wilson, perhaps?  Mr. Wilson could be a sentimental pick by the Academy for a nomination.  As the days draw closer I see Mr. Wilson as a finalist for his better-than-Woody Allen-now impression of Woody Allen, who directed him in the comic fantasy farce "Midnight In Paris".  Could Mr. Wilson be the Adrien Brody of the best actor category if he's nominated?  Mr. Brody, by the way, also appears in "Midnight In Paris".

With all "The Artist" talk and increasing award wins, and momentum building for "The Descendants", "Midnight" may be the so-called X-factor next week.  Mr. Wilson's is a comedic performance, but in many respects so is French comedic actor Jean Dujardin's work in "The Artist", and Mr. Dujardin is expected to make the final five.  Will Oscar have a place in any acting category for Ryan Gosling ("Drive", "crazy, stupid, love.")?

Demián Bichir's inclusion in the final five lead actors in the Screen Actors Guild Awards (Jan. 29) for his work in "A Better Life" is heartening, and Leonardo DiCaprio, whom critics groups all but ignored for his work in "J. Edgar", is also a SAG Awards finalist.  Mr. DiCaprio may make it as an Oscar nominee with the mostly older (60+ age) members of the Academy, who remember FBI director J. Edgar Hoover.  (Clint Eastwood's film came out in early November and received mixed reviews.)  Will Mr. Eastwood -- who has been largely on the outside looking in for awards season in 2011 (for his 2010 film "Hereafter") and so far in 2012 -- be part of the post-nominations conversation next week?

On the ladies' side, it's safe to say that Natalie Portman won't be a nominee.  The Oscar winner was on the big screen in 2011 in no less than six films ("Black Swan", "No Strings Attached", "The Other Woman", "Your Highness", "Thor", "Hesher".)  Jessica Chastain, who was in five films in 2011, could be a double-nominee.  The lead actress category will be very tough, and one very good actress will be left off.  Who will it be?  Tilda Swinton?  Charlize Theron?  Glenn Close?  Kirsten Dunst?  Will either Elizabeth Olsen or Adepero Oduye find themselves included by the Academy?

In the supporting actress category Vanessa Redgrave could well be left off, though she thoroughly deserves inclusion for her work in "Coriolanus", and to an extent "Anonymous".  I'm not sure however, that enough Academy members have even had a chance to see "Coriolanus", which gets an expanded theatrical release in the U.S. this month.  One thing's for sure: The Academy will definitely rectify its no-black nominees problem of last year and at least two black actresses will be on Oscar's shortlist (Viola Davis and Octavia Spencer, both of "The Help".) 

Here's the $64,000 question: will Melissa McCarthy make the supporting ledger for "Bridesmaids" with her comedic work?  By the way, Kristen Wiig deserves as much plaudits as Ms. McCarthy has been getting.

Okay.  Enough conjecture.  The following names, I believe, will be called out a week from today on January 24:


BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close, "Albert Nobbs"
Viola Davis, "The Help"
Meryl Streep, "The Iron Lady"
Tilda Swinton, "We Need To Talk About Kevin"
Michelle Williams, "My Week With Marilyn"


BEST ACTOR
George Clooney, "The Descendants"
Jean Dujardin, "The Artist"
Michael Fassbender, "Shame"
Brad Pitt, "Moneyball"
Owen Wilson, "Midnight In Paris"


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo, "The Artist"
Jessica Chastain, "The Tree Of Life" (or "The Help")
Janet McTeer, "Albert Nobbs"
Octavia Spencer, "The Help"
Shailene Woodley, "The Descendants"


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, "My Week With Marilyn"
Albert Brooks, "Drive"
Jonah Hill, "Moneyball"
Nick Nolte, "Warrior"
Christopher Plummer, "Beginners"


BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen, "Midnight In Paris"
Michel Hazanavicius, "The Artist"
Terrence Malick, "The Tree Of Life"
Alexander Payne, "The Descendants"
Martin Scorsese, "Hugo"


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Woody Allen, "Midnight In Paris"
J.C. Chandor, "Margin Call"
Asghar Farhadi, "A Separation"
Tom McCarthy, "Win Win"
Mike Mills, "Beginners"


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Adrian Hodges, "My Week With Marilyn"
John Logan, "Hugo"
Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, "The Descendants"
Aaron Sorkin and Steven Zaillian, "Moneyball"
Tate Taylor, "The Help"


BEST PICTURE
The Artist
The Descendants
Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows Part II
The Help
Hugo
Midnight In Paris
Moneyball
My Week With Marilyn
The Tree Of Life


Previous Awards Season 2012 story: Douglas Trumbull to receive special VFX Oscar
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