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Friday, February 22, 2013

AWARDS SEASON 2013
And The Winners Will Be . . .

Bryan Cranston, left, and Ben Affleck appear in a scene from the film
Bryan Cranston and Ben Affleck, the latter of whom directed "Argo".  Warner Brothers
       
by Omar P.L. Moore/PopcornReel.com        Follow popcornreel on Twitter FOLLOW                                           
Friday, February 22, 2013
Trying to guess what's in 5,875 Academy voters' minds is...impossible.  Nostradamus would have failed.  With the Academy Awards momentum can either be the hottest indicator or yesterday's news.  With two days to go conventional wisdom appears to be that "Argo" (or is it "Silver Linings Playbook"?) will win best picture. "Beasts Of The Southern Wild" looks like a long shot.  Academy voting ended on Tuesday.

Here are my predictions for Sunday's Oscars in several categories.  I remain convinced that surprises are on the way this Sunday.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway

No difficulty in predicting this category.  Anne Hathaway will win her first Oscar for work, that like many efforts in this category (Catherine Zeta-Jones, "Chicago", Renee Zellweger, "Cold Mountain", etc.) isn't her best.  Ms. Hathaway had about 15 minutes in "Les Miserables", a film that has virtually fallen off the radar for serious Oscar talk.  Yet it is 15 minutes of deglamorized stardust the Academy loves.  This shedding of beauty has worked for many actresses in the past, including most recently Charlize Theron (lead Oscar for "Monster", 2004).  When a beautiful actress loses her vanity and good looks Oscar often comes calling.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert De Niro

I think the Academy is going to stun people here.  On purely unscientific analysis it's hard to fathom four acting nominations for "Silver Linings Playbook" without at least two winners.  Robert De Niro will win his first Oscar in 32 years for his portrayal of the father of a bipolar son in David O. Russell's comedy-drama.  While it isn't the best work Mr. De Niro has done in his illustrious career, it's a relatable portrayal that many Academy members, especially older members (and some younger ones) will admire.  I think the vote will be close, and sadly, the more deserving performance (Tommy Lee Jones, "Lincoln") will fall short.  I also sense that all the talk and speculation about Mr. Jones' great effort in Steven Spielberg's epic has reached a plateau, even with his wins at the Golden Globes and Screen Actors Guild. 


BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Claudio Miranda (Life Of Pi)

Roger Deakins ("Skyfall") will take a back seat yet again this Sunday, with Mr. Miranda's stunning visuals in "Life Of Pi" getting the glory, in a film whose look is sometimes reminiscent of "Avatar", which won Mauro Fiore an Oscar in 2010.  The category, seen by some as a race between Mr. Deakins and Mr. Miranda, looks to be firmly in favor of the latter.  The fact that the Academy will do a tribute to 50 years of Bond, and Adele will perform on Sunday, may be an early signal that it won't be Mr. Deakins' night.


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
"Django Unchained" (Quentin Tarantino)

The above screenplay was ineligible for the Writer's Guild Awards, and Mark Boal won for penning "Zero Dark Thirty".  Despite my own extremely strong objections to Mr. Tarantino's film, the infinitely more important (and relevant) issue is of course the Academy's choice, and they will award Mr. Tarantino an Oscar (his second) for "Django Unchained".  "Moonrise Kingdom" (Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola), a little-seen film, is a fine work but has strong competition.  Unfortunately Mr. Boal's work on "Zero Dark Thirty" has been overshadowed by the pre-Oscars negative talk in the media and some parts of the CIA.  John Gatins' "Flight" has received little attention.  Michael Haneke's original script for "Amour" deserves recognition (as did the original script for "A Separation" last year), but I think Mr. Haneke may get a larger prize coming his way on Sunday.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
"Argo" (Chris Terrio)

Arguably the most important award of Oscar night: whoever wins this category may well will win best picture.  The smart money says Chris Terrio for his adapted script for "Argo", which won a Writer's Guild award this month.  David Magee's "Life Of Pi" script wasn't the strongest part of Ang Lee's film.  The noisy drums for "Beasts Of The Southern Wild" have stopped beating, and Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin will feel that silence on Sunday.  David O. Russell's script for "Silver Linings Playbook" will be given some serious attention.  Tony Kushner ("Lincoln") should by all rights be hoisting an Oscar in 48 hours but it will be Mr. Terrio's award to lose.


BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Life Of Pi

The Academy will award the visual effects team of Mr. Lee's film with well-deserved Oscars. 


BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)

This category remains fairly safe, although Emmanuelle Riva ("Amour") has gained buzz lately.  The final word, buzz-free or otherwise though, belongs to the Academy.  The best actress award often heralds new, emerging or young stars whose platforms are built or cemented with an Oscar win.  Sometimes this platforming works (Hilary Swank, Marion Cotillard).  Sometimes it doesn't (Reese Witherspoon, Halle Berry).

Ms. Riva doesn't have Isabelle Huppert as a supporting nominee, and Jean-Louis Trintignant wasn't nominated either for "Amour" -- two things that will ultimately hurt the legend on Sunday.  By contrast Ms. Lawrence has lead and supporting nominations company from fellow cast members.  She was very impressive in "The Hunger Games", and similarly good in "Silver Linings Playbook".  I have a strong feeling the Academy will laud Ms. Lawrence for playing a woman whose motives aren't as apparent initially as they will become.  Ms. Lawrence's character hauls behind, takes no prisoners and has a heart in "Silver Linings Playbook" that can't be ignored.


 Emmanuelle Riva in "Amour", directed by Michael Haneke.  Sony Pictures Classics

BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)

It's virtually impossible to believe that Mr. Day-Lewis won't pick up his third Oscar on Sunday.  Stranger things have happened, though.  Mr. Day-Lewis was expected to win in 2003 for "Gangs Of New York".  Instead, a younger and lesser-known Adrien Brody took Oscar home for "The Pianist".  Will Bradley Cooper do the same on Sunday?  (No.)  The Academy will salute a well-deserved acting feat.  In another year Denzel Washington may well have won for "Flight", playing nuance so well as an alcoholic in Robert Zemeckis' drama.  Joaquin Phoenix won raves for his work in "The Master" but Mr. Phoenix, in his refreshingly frank way, has said some uncomplimentary things about the Oscars, which likely hasn't endeared him to voters.  Hugh Jackman, very likable, is sometimes extraordinary in "Les Miserables", but it won't be his Sunday.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Alexandre Desplat (Argo)

Integral to the suspenseful moments at the beginning and end of "Argo" is the film's score by Mr. Desplat, who will win his first Academy Award on Sunday. 


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Adele (Skyfall, "Skyfall")

The title song, which Adele sang so beautifully for the film's opening credits, is the Grammy winner's to lose in this category.  An Oscar will stand aside Adele's Grammy wins come Sunday.


BEST EDITING
William Goldenberg (Argo)

Mr. Goldenberg's stunning editing for Ben Affleck's sometimes tense film makes all the difference, punctuating the best moments of "Argo" -- its opening and closing 20 minutes.  The strength of "Argo" is in its editing, cinematography and direction.  This category should be a walkover, and had Mr. Affleck been nominated for best director he too would have been a lock.


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour (Austria)

The lock of Sunday's ceremony.  "Amour" is from Austria, though filmed in the French language, with iconic actors Emmanuelle Riva and Jean -Louis Trintignant transfixing this brilliant, stunning work of art.  One way or another Michael Haneke will get to accept the Oscar that has been calling his name since his film's U.S. release in late December.


BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Searching For Sugarman

The documentary about the long-lost fame of legendary American rock musician Rodriguez will take home the Oscar on Sunday, in a very competitive category, one of the toughest of the night.  ("The Gatekeepers", "The Invisible War" -- my personal pick --, "5 Broken Cameras", "How To Survive A Plague" are the other rivals.)  The Academy will give Rodriguez the recognition he's far overdue for here in the U.S., as whole new generations and audiences will be able to rediscover him as a result of this Oscar win.  Bank on Malik Bendjelloul, the director of "Sugarman", to win here, and for Rodriguez to be called to the stage to speak.


BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee

I think Mr. Lee will win the directing Oscar for "Life Of Pi", although David O. Russell may well be a sentimental choice of the Academy.  Michael Haneke had every frame of "Amour" right.  Every.  Single.  One.   Don't be surprised if the Austrian director gets called on Sunday night in what could be a huge night for him.  The Academy's inexplicable omissions of Kathryn Bigelow and Ben Affleck in the category still sting some.  In this quirky year of nominees and snubs even Steven Spielberg is a long shot for a third Oscar as compared to Mr. Russell, Mr. Lee and Mr. Haneke.  Mr. Lee wins. 


BEST PICTURE
LINCOLN

I still believe (and I think the Academy does too) in "Lincoln", the film with the most Oscar nominations.  For a number of years in Academy Awards years the film with the most nominations including a best picture nod would go on to win that top prize.  Despite some discernable momentum shifts over the last month, "Lincoln" has some strength, anchored by Mr. Day-Lewis and Mr. Kushner.  The film itself has the most relevance and timeliness in today's American landscape, especially amidst the current political and social climate.  Oscar voters should make that clear on Sunday, although there's a four-letter word that will be uttered if "Lincoln" isn't.

The 85th Annual Academy Awards can be seen this Sunday live on ABC in the U.S. from 8:30pm Eastern/5pm Pacific time. 
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